Russo-Ukraine War - Tracing the Roots of the Conflict.

 Soviet Naivety – Not One Inch Eastward!

The reunification of Germany in 1990 was a momentous event that reshaped the geopolitical landscape of Europe and marked the end of the Cold War era. At the centre of this historic development was Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union. However, Gorbachev's pivotal role in agreeing to reunify Germany demonstrated his naivety more than his commitment to ‘democratic’ principles and willingness to embrace change. 

In the late 1980s, the world witnessed a series of dramatic political changes that would reshape the global landscape, especially in the Soviet Union and across Eastern Europe. This period was marked by the transformative leadership of Mikhail Gorbachev, who introduced a series of groundbreaking policies aimed at revitalizing the stagnant Soviet system. Among these policies were glasnost (meaning "openness") and perestroika (meaning "restructuring"). Glasnost encouraged increased transparency, freedom of expression, and a reduction in government censorship, fostering a new environment where citizens could openly discuss social and political issues. Perestroika, on the other hand, aimed at restructuring the economic and political systems to make them more efficient and adaptable, allowing limited market reforms and decentralizing economic control.

As these reforms gained momentum, they inadvertently loosened the Soviet Union’s grip on its satellite states in Eastern Europe. Encouraged by the winds of change blowing from Moscow, many Eastern European nations began to push for greater autonomy and independence from Soviet dominance. Discontent that had long been simmering and finally erupted, leading to a wave of popular movements demanding democratic reforms and national sovereignty.

The turning point came in 1989, a year that would be etched in history for its sweeping revolutions. Protests in Poland, Hungary, East Germany, Czechoslovakia, and other nations intensified, leading to the fall of communist governments that had ruled for decades. The most iconic event of this era was the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989. The Berlin Wall, which had stood as a concrete symbol of the Cold War division between East and West, crumbled as East Germans flooded into West Berlin, celebrating their newfound freedom. This momentous event did not just signal the reunification of Germany, but also the collapse of the Iron Curtain that had divided Europe since the end of World War II.

The dismantling of the Berlin Wall was a catalyst for further change, as the domino effect rippled through the region. Soon after, one-by-one, communist regimes in Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, Romania, and elsewhere collapsed under the pressure of public uprisings. By the end of 1991, the Soviet Union itself disintegrated, leading to the emergence of independent republics. This wave of change marked the definitive end of the Cold War, leading to a new era characterized by hopes for democracy, open markets, and international cooperation.

Mikhail Gorbachev's vision for peaceful coexistence and a reduction in Cold War tensions was a driving force behind his decision to agree to Germany's reunification. He recognized that the status quo was unsustainable and he thought that the reunification of Germany under ‘democratic’ principles was crucial for fostering stability and peace in Europe.

The reunification process required delicate negotiations with Western leaders, especially those of the US, the UK, and France. Gorbachev's commitment to perceived ‘democratic’ values and his desire to rebuild relations with the West after decades of Cold War rivalry influenced his decision to support making Germany whole.

However, one of the primary concerns for Gorbachev and the Soviets, was the potential expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe following German reunification. He correctly feared that an expanded NATO would pose a security threat to the Soviet Union and undermine the balance of power in the region. To address these concerns, Gorbachev sought assurances from Western leaders that NATO would not expand further eastward. With a spit and a handshake, he was assured that they would expand ‘not one inch eastward’. Unfortunately, and to further demonstrate of his naivety, those assurances were not formalized in writing.

The negotiations between the two Germanys (East and West) and the four Allied powers (the US, the UK, France, and the Soviet Union) led to the "Two-Plus-Four Agreement." This agreement paved the way for German reunification and supposedly ended the post-World War II Allied occupation of Germany. It was signed in September 1990 and marked a critical turning point in European history.

Gorbachev's decision to agree to Germany's reunification was a bold move, given the potential risks and uncertainties involved. His willingness to embrace change and promote democratic ideals had a profound impact on the course of history. Germany's reunification bolstered European integration and paved the way for a new era of cooperation between former Cold War adversaries. However, the subsequent collapse of the USSR and the West’s tendency for stolen valor and to rewrite history via Hollywood; created a belief in the West that they had won the Cold War. There was now a New World Order dominated by a single global hegemon. The West truly believed they had reached  the ‘End of History’, openly demonstrating that it was not only Gorbachev who was naïve. 

Gorbachev played a crucial role in reshaping Europe's political landscape. However, his naivety and trust in the West opened the door to their global terrorism, unchallenged political coups, and never-ending War of Terror. His leadership and vision for a more cooperative world order has left a lasting legacy on the global stage, reminding us of the importance of understanding your enemy, seeing through their smiling faces, and understanding that western elites cannot ever be trusted. 

The August Coup of 1991: The Turning Point in the Collapse of the Soviet Union

The late 1980s saw profound changes in the Soviet Union under Gorbachev's leadership. His policies of glasnost and perestroika aimed to introduce political and economic reforms, promote transparency, and loosen state control. However, these reforms also generated opposition from conservative elements within the Communist Party who feared losing their power and the potential disintegration of the Soviet Union.

The coup was orchestrated by a group of high-ranking Communist Party officials, including Vice President Gennady Yanayev, Minister of Defence Dmitry Yazov, and KGB Chairman Vladimir Kryuchkov. This group formed the "State Committee on the State of Emergency" and sought to oust Gorbachev and reverse his reforms.

On August 18, 1991, while Gorbachev was on holiday in Crimea, the coup plotters declared a state of emergency, citing Gorbachev's alleged illness as the reason for his absence. They attempted to take control of key institutions, including the media, to suppress opposition and maintain centralized control. However, unfortunately for them, they didn’t have a Victoria Nuland operative organising with the UN to ‘glue’ it together.

Instead, Boris Yeltsin emerged as a central figure in resisting the coup. Yeltsin saw the coup as an attempt to halt ‘democratic’ progress and seize power. He quickly rallied popular support and took a defiant stand against the coup plotters. Addressing large crowds in Moscow, Yeltsin called for resistance, displaying tremendous courage and leadership.

The coup faced widespread public opposition. Thousands of citizens took to the streets to support Yeltsin and reject the return to authoritarian rule. Key military units refused to follow the coup's orders, further weakening the plotters' grip on power. As the coup unravelled, it became evident that the majority of the population and key institutions were opposed to the hard-liners’ agenda.

During the coup, Western leaders publicly expressed their support for Yeltsin and their condemnation of the coup attempt. The Western media provided extensive coverage of Yeltsin's defiance and the public resistance in Moscow, further boosting his profile and presenting him as a leader who stood for ‘democratic’ values.

The coup plotters' plans began to crumble when it became apparent that the President was not incapacitated by illness as they had claimed. He had been held incommunicado during the initial stages of the coup, but after several days, was released and returned to Moscow. Gorbachev condemned the coup and reaffirmed his commitment to reform.

In the aftermath of the coup's failure, Gorbachev felt betrayed by the support Yeltsin received from the West. He believed that the West had embraced Yeltsin as their preferred leader, leading to a loss of confidence in Gorbachev's leadership and reforms. Gorbachev's perception of betrayal by the West contributed to the further deterioration of his political standing. 

The Phone Call that Broke Gorbachev: The Collapse of the Soviet Union

The breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 was a pivotal moment in world history, marking the end of the Cold War and the dissolution of one of the world's superpowers. However, it was a single phone call that played a significant role in the final stages of the Soviet Union's collapse, forever altering the course of history.

The crucial phone call occurred between Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk. During this conversation, Kravchuk informed Gorbachev that Ukraine was planning to hold a referendum on December 1, 1991, to determine whether the country should remain part of the Soviet Union or become an independent nation.

The announcement of the Ukrainian referendum sent shockwaves through the Soviet political landscape. Ukraine was the second-largest republic in the Soviet Union, and its decision to seek independence dealt a severe blow to Gorbachev's efforts to keep the country intact. It paved the way for other Soviet republics, including Belarus and Russia, to follow suit and demand independence, further fracturing the once-unified nation.

In the wake of Ukraine's referendum and facing mounting pressure from both hardliners and reformists, Gorbachev realized that the Soviet Union was on the brink of disintegration. On December 25, 1991, Gorbachev announced his resignation as the President of the Soviet Union, effectively ending the country's existence.

On the same day, the remaining republics of the Soviet Union, including Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine, formed the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), signifying the end of the Soviet Union as a single entity. Ukraine officially declared its independence on December 26, 1991.

However, what is important for current affairs, is that the area known as Novorossiya, which translates to "New Russia," the territories in the southern and eastern parts of Ukraine, including the regions around of present-day Odessa, Donbas, Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Crimea regions; were Russian lands administratively attached to Ukraine when the USSR was one entity. 

Because the Soviet Union's nationality policy aimed to foster a sense of Soviet identity while preserving local cultures, boundaries between republics were often redrawn to reflect the demographic and economic factors of the time, with little regard for historical or cultural connections. The attachment of Novorossiya and Crimea to Ukraine during Soviet times served administrative and economic purposes. 

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Ukraine became an independent nation. However, the legacy of Novorossiya and Crimea's attachment remained, leading to complex issues of identity and allegiance. Ultimately climaxing into the civil war from 2014, which then escalated into the Russo-Ukraine War from February 2022.