Russo-Ukraine War - A New Hope

 The Rise of Putin – The Need for Organisational Competence.

Vladimir Putin's selection as a candidate to replace Boris Yeltsin as the President of Russia was a carefully orchestrated process that involved a combination of factors, including Yeltsin's political manoeuvring and Putin's rise through various government positions. 

Putin's political career began in the early 1990s when he worked in the St. Petersburg mayor's office and later served as the deputy mayor. In 1996, he moved to Moscow and joined the Russian presidential administration, where he held various positions, including Deputy Chief of Staff for the President.

In August 1999, Yeltsin appointed Putin as the Director of the Federal Security Service (FSB), Russia's intelligence agency. Just a few weeks later, in August 1999, Yeltsin surprised many by appointing Putin as Prime Minister of Russia, replacing Sergei Stepashin.

At the time of Putin's appointment as Prime Minister, Yeltsin's health was in decline, and he was facing growing public dissatisfaction with his leadership. The choice of Putin was seen as a way to secure a successor who would protect the nation against a hostile expanding military alliance. 

As Prime Minister, Putin took a tough stance on the Second Chechen War, which had been ongoing since 1999. His public image was to project a strong and decisive leader, a sharp contrast to Yeltsin's increasingly frail appearance. The media played a crucial role in popularising Putin as a competent and trustworthy leader.

On December 31, 1999, Boris Yeltsin announced his resignation, surprising the nation and the international community. He declared that Putin would serve as acting president until the presidential elections, scheduled for March 2000.

Putin’s Consolidation of Power – A Tsar in the Making

As the acting president, Putin gained public support. He ran for president in the 2000 elections and campaigned on a platform of stability and order, promising to restore Russia's greatness and tackle corruption and terrorism. He won the presidential election with a significant majority of the vote.

Upon assuming the presidency of Russia in 1999, Vladimir Putin faced significant challenges in consolidating power and restoring a nation that was in tatters. One of the crucial tasks was confronting the influence wielded by powerful oligarchs who had amassed immense wealth and control over key industries during the chaotic years following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The ‘shock-therapy’ of the 90’s led to the emergence of powerful business magnates known as the oligarchs. Taking advantage of the privatization process, they acquired state-owned assets at fire-sale prices and became immensely wealthy and influential, controlling major sectors such as oil, gas, media, and metals. Their vast fortunes and political connections gave them significant leverage in shaping government policies and decisions.

One of the first steps Putin needed to take, was to redefine the balance of power between the state and the oligarchs. He recognized that their unchecked influence posed a threat to Russia's sovereignty and hindered the government's ability to implement comprehensive reforms.

To challenge the oligarchs' dominance, Putin focused on implementing legal and regulatory reforms. He sought to create a level playing field by introducing measures to increase transparency, combat corruption, and establish clearer rules for conducting business. This included revising tax laws, improving corporate governance, and strengthening the rule of law.

The oligarchs' influence extended to media ownership, allowing them to shape public opinion and sway political discourse. Putin's administration sought to root out the cancerous Soros and CIA influenced media psyops in their major media outlets. This move aimed to limit the oligarchs' and foreign NGO’s ability to dominate public perception and disrupt the government's policies.

To reduce the oligarchs' stranglehold over vital sectors of the economy, Putin promoted the establishment of state-controlled companies that could compete with and, in some cases, take over oligarch-owned businesses. Gazprom and Rosneft are notable examples of state-controlled entities that have become major players in the energy sector.

In some instances, Putin used criminal prosecutions and asset seizures as a means to challenge the oligarchs' influence and ensure compliance with the government. High-profile cases against prominent figures like Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once the richest man in the country, represents a defining chapter in modern Russian history. Their clash epitomized the battle for control over Russia's political and economic landscape, highlighting the complexities of governance, business interests, and the challenges of balancing state power with private wealth.

Khodorkovsky was one of the prominent oligarchs who emerged during the privatization of state assets. As the founder of Yukos, an oil company that quickly became one of Russia's largest, He accumulated enormous wealth and influence, positioning himself as a key player in both the business and political arenas.

In 2003, the Russian government launched a series of investigations into Yukos, leading to criminal charges of tax evasion against Khodorkovsky and other top executives. By going after the top dog, and punishing the biggest criminal. He demonstrated that no one is untouchable. 

Mikhail Khodorkovsky was arrested and subsequently found guilty of tax evasion and other financial crimes. He was sentenced to prison, while Yukos was dismantled and its assets seized. The crackdown on Khodorkovsky and Yukos signalled a significant shift in Russia's political landscape. Putin's government took decisive action against the oligarchs, reasserting state control over strategic industries.

This garnered widespread international attention and condemnation from organizations controlled by the Western oligarchs. The Khodorkovsky case strained Russia's relations with the West, with their usual doublespeak accusations of authoritarianism and lectures on what ‘real democracy’ looks like.

The power struggle between Putin and Khodorkovsky symbolizes the complex relationship between political power and business interests in Russia. Putin's efforts to consolidate state control and challenge the oligarchs' influence reshaped the country's political and economic landscape. The battle between the state and the oligarchs underscores the enduring challenge of striking a delicate balance between strong leadership and preserving democratic principles. 

Putin's efforts to confront the influence of powerful oligarchs required a combination of legal reforms, media regulations, and state intervention in strategic industries. By reasserting the state's power over the economy and curbing the oligarchs' influence, Putin sought to stabilize the country and consolidate power in the hands of the government using a legal and regulatory framework to reign in market forces.

Putin's 'National Champions' Policy: Fostering Russia's Economic Independence

During this time, Putin created an economic strategy known as the 'national champions' policy to bolster Russia's economic prowess and assert its dominance in various sectors. This policy aimed to support and promote large domestic companies, often state-owned or closely affiliated with the government, to become influential players in the global market. By nurturing and empowering these 'national champions,' Putin aimed to strengthen Russia's economic resilience and enhance its geopolitical standing on the world stage.

The concept of 'national champions' refers to prominent companies designated by the government to represent their respective industries domestically and globally. These companies are strategically significant and considered vital to Russia's economic interests. Typically, they receive substantial state support, favourable policies, and access to resources that enable them to grow and compete effectively on an international scale.

Putin's 'national champions' policy has several key objectives. Firstly, it aims to enhance Russia's economic sovereignty by reducing reliance on foreign corporations and technologies, particularly in strategic sectors such as energy, defence, food-security and telecommunications. This policy also seeks to foster innovation and technological advancement within Russia, promoting the development of cutting-edge industries domestically.

The energy sector, dominated by state-owned Gazprom and Rosneft, serves as a prime example of the 'national champions' policy in action. These companies have played pivotal roles in securing Russia's position as a major global energy player. Similarly, companies like Rostec and United Aircraft Corporation in the defence sector, as well as Gazprom and Lukoil in the energy sector, have been empowered to drive growth and expansion.

The 'national champions' policy holds significant geopolitical implications for Russia. By cultivating large, influential domestic companies, Putin aims to increase Russia's leverage in international negotiations and strengthen its bargaining power with foreign partners. It also provides Russia with a powerful tool to advance its geopolitical interests and counteract economic pressures imposed by Western countries through sanctions and restrictions.

Putin's 'national champions' policy reflects his vision of Russia as an economically independent nation capable of asserting its interests on the global stage. By supporting and empowering key domestic companies, the policy enhanced Russia's economic resilience, reduced their dependence on foreign technologies, and strengthened its geopolitical influence. 

Putin's Response to 9/11: Strengthening Russia-US Cooperation

The events of September 11, 2001, sent shockwaves across the globe, leaving an indelible impact on international relations and security dynamics. In the aftermath of 9/11, Putin responded with a commitment to strengthen cooperation with the United States in counterterrorism efforts. 

President Putin was among the first world leaders to express condolences and solidarity with the United States. In a statement, Putin condemned the ‘terrorist acts’ as a ‘challenge to humanity’ and pledged Russia's full support in the global fight against terrorism. He activated their counterterrorism mechanisms to enhance intelligence sharing and operational coordination with the United States. The Federal Security Service (FSB) of Russia and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of the United States engaged in intensified information exchanges to identify potential threats.

Putin's response led to a significant increase in joint counterterrorism operations and intelligence sharing between Russia and the United States. Both countries intensified their efforts to track and apprehend terrorist networks, sharing vital information on potential threats and cooperating on counterterrorism strategies.

Russia offered support for the US-led military operations in Afghanistan, where the Taliban regime harboured the al-Qaeda Mujahidin blamed for the 9/11 attacks. The Russian government provided intelligence, logistical assistance, and allowed the use of its airspace for US military transport.

In the spirit of post-9/11 cooperation, Russia and the United States pursued arms control measures. In 2002, Putin and then-US President George W. Bush signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (SORT), also known as the Moscow Treaty. Aimed at reducing the number of strategic nuclear warheads deployed by both countries.

In 2002, Russia and NATO established the NATO-Russia Council (NRC) to enhance communication and cooperation on security issues, including counterterrorism. The NRC became a platform for dialogue and coordination between Russia and the Western alliance on shared security challenges.

In the early 2000s, President Putin surprised the international community by expressing Russia's interest in joining NATO. His proposal reflected a vision of Russia as an equal and integral part of the Euro-Atlantic security architecture. Putin argued that NATO enlargement would be less threatening if Russia were a member of the alliance. However, despite NATO’s ‘open-door’ policy, they made it clear to Putin that Russia was still their enemy, and that they had no interest in securing peace in the northern hemisphere.  

Despite the post-9/11 spirit of cooperation initiated by Russia, the US had no interest in peace. They had become the global hegemon and they did not need to cooperate with their weakened Cold War enemy they now increasingly saw as ‘a gas-station masquerading as a country’. 

Bush made the controversial decision to withdraw the United States from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, a landmark arms control agreement signed with the Soviet Union in 1972. The ABM Treaty was a cornerstone of strategic stability during the Cold War, limiting both countries from deploying extensive anti-ballistic missile defences. 

Ironically, with the US getting bogged down fighting insurgency style warfare against goat-herders and farmers in the Middle-East for the last 20 years. Russia went on to take the military tech-lead by developing hypersonic missiles and S500 air-defence systems that make the Patriot system look like a joke.